View All Stock Evaluations | Evaluation Date: 2026-01-05

IREN Limited is a vertically integrated data center company that generates revenue through two main channels: Bitcoin mining using proprietary data centers powered by 100% renewable energy, and AI cloud services providing high-performance computing (HPC) and GPU-as-a-Service for machine learning workloads. The company secured a transformational $9.7 billion contract with Microsoft in November 2025 to provide AI cloud infrastructure, marking its strategic pivot from crypto mining to hyperscale AI compute.

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Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary Scorecard
2. Company Overview
3. Leadership & Board of Directors
4. Business Model Visual
5. Dividends & Upcoming Events
6. Competitor Comparison Summary
7. Visual Score Summary
8. Key Graham/Buffett/Munger Quotes Applied
9. Detailed Analysis
   1. Section A: CEO & Management
   2. Section B: Board of Directors
   3. Section C: Incentive Structures
   4. Section D: Regulatory & Political
   5. Section E: Business Quality & Moat
   6. Section F: Financial Strength
   7. Section G: Geopolitical Risk
   8. Section H: Valuation
   9. Section J: Benjamin Graham Screen
10. Red Flag Analysis
11. Critic Review Notes
12. Source Reliability Summary
13. Hyperlink Validation
14. All Citations

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Executive Summary Scorecard

Category	Score	Max	%	Rating
A. CEO & Management	17	25	68%	🟡
B. Board of Directors	14	20	70%	🟡
C. Incentive Structures	12	20	60%	🟡
D. Regulatory & Political	17	25	68%	🟡
E. Business Quality & Moat	22	35	63%	🟡
F. Financial Strength	18	35	51%	🔴
G. Country & Geopolitical	12	15	80%	🟢
H. Valuation & Margin of Safety	16	35	46%	🔴
Raw Subtotal	128	210
I. Red Flag Deductions	-18	0	5 flags
TOTAL	110	210	52.4%	🔴
J. Graham Screen	1/7	Info	FAIL

Munger Verdict: ❌ FAIL

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Scorecard Visualization

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Company Overview

• Company: IREN Limited
• Ticker: IREN
• Exchange: NASDAQ
• Industry: Data Centers / Bitcoin Mining
• Sector: Technology / Digital Infrastructure
• Founded: 2018
• Headquarters: Sydney, Australia
• Employees: ~300 (estimated)
• Market Cap: $15.84B (Jan 2026)
• FY2025 Revenue: $501M

Revenue Breakdown by Segment

Segment	FY2025 Revenue	% of Total	YoY Growth	Trend
Bitcoin Mining	~$485M	~97%	+180%	🟢
AI Cloud Services	~$16M	~3%	+1000%+	🟢

Note: AI Cloud revenue is rapidly scaling and expected to surpass Bitcoin mining by end of 2026.

Geographic Revenue Mix

Region	% of Revenue	Trend	Note
United States (Texas)	~70%	🟢	Childress & Sweetwater campuses
Canada (British Columbia)	~30%	🟡	Transitioning from Bitcoin to AI Cloud

Business Outlook

IREN is executing an aggressive pivot from Bitcoin mining to AI cloud infrastructure. The $9.7B Microsoft contract validates this strategy, with the company targeting $3.4B in AI Cloud ARR by end of 2026. However, execution risk is substantial given the massive capital requirements ($5.8B GPU procurement from Dell) and construction timelines.

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Leadership & Board of Directors

Executive Leadership Team

Role	Name	Notable Background
Co-CEO	Daniel Roberts	20+ yrs finance/infrastructure, ex-Macquarie Capital, co-founded 2018
Co-CEO	William Roberts	13 yrs resources/commodities, ex-Macquarie Group VP
CFO	Belinda Nucifora	25+ yrs finance, ex-Merrill Lynch, Alinta Energy
General Counsel	Cesilia Kim	23 yrs renewable energy/M&A, ex-Snowy Hydro
Chief Data Center Officer	Giles Walsh	Infrastructure background, ex-Ventia

Board of Directors

Role	Name	Notable Background
Chairman	David Bartholomew	30+ yrs energy/utilities, Director at Atlas Arteria
Director	Sunita Parasuraman	Ex-Meta/Facebook Treasury Head, Baldwin Risk Partners Board
Director	Michael Alfred	Co-founder Digital Assets Data, sold to NYDIG
Director	Christopher Guzowski	Investment background

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Business Model Visual

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Dividends & Upcoming Events

Dividend Information

Metric	Value
Current Dividend	None
Dividend History	No dividends paid
Payout Ratio	N/A
Dividend Yield	0%

Upcoming Events & Catalysts

Date	Event	Significance
Feb 18, 2026	Q2 FY26 Earnings	Key execution update
Q4 2025	Horizon 1 Childress energization	50MW liquid-cooled facility
Apr 2026	Sweetwater 1 energization	1.4GW facility
End 2026	140K GPU deployment target	$3.4B ARR milestone

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Competitor Comparison Summary

Bitcoin Mining Competitors

Company	Ticker	Hash Rate	Market Cap	AI Pivot	YTD Return
IREN	IREN	50 EH/s	$15.84B	✅ Advanced	+300%
Marathon Digital	MARA	58 EH/s	~$6B	🟡 Early	-44%
Riot Platforms	RIOT	33 EH/s	~$4B	🟡 Early	+32%
CleanSpark	CLSK	50 EH/s	~$4B	❌ No	+16%
Core Scientific	CORZ	19 EH/s	~$5B	✅ Active	+150%
Cipher Mining	CIFR	~10 EH/s	~$2B	✅ Active	+230%

AI Data Center Peers

Company	Ticker	Focus	Market Cap
Equinix	EQIX	Data Center REIT	~$90B
Digital Realty	DLR	Data Center REIT	~$50B
CoreWeave	Private	AI Cloud	~$35B (private)

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Visual Score Summary

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Key Graham/Buffett/Munger Quotes Applied

“A great business at a fair price is superior to a fair business at a great price.” – Charlie Munger

IREN’s AI pivot shows promise of becoming a great business, but current valuation reflects optimistic execution assumptions rather than demonstrated excellence.

“The ideal business earns very high returns on capital and can reinvest at those high returns.” – Warren Buffett

IREN’s current ROIC is negative (-5.89%) as the company burns cash to build infrastructure. The Microsoft contract suggests potential for high returns, but execution remains unproven.

“All I want to know is where I’m going to die, so I’ll never go there.” – Charlie Munger

Key risks: execution on $5.8B GPU deployment, construction delays, Bitcoin price volatility, securities litigation, and single customer concentration (Microsoft).

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Detailed Analysis

Section A: CEO & Management

Score: 17/25 (68%) 🟡

A1. Integrity & Honesty (3/5)

Evidence:

• Securities class action lawsuit filed in October 2024 alleging material misrepresentation of HPC/AI capabilities (GlobeNewswire, Nov 2024)
• Culper Research short report accused company of “dramatically misrepresenting” its HPC potential (Nasdaq, Nov 2024)
• Financial restatement announced in March 2025 following SEC review (GlobeNewswire, Mar 2025)
• Material weakness in internal controls disclosed in FY2024 annual report

A2. Track Record (No Scandals) (3/5)

Evidence:

• Roberts brothers have clean personal track records; both are ex-Macquarie bankers
• Company navigated 2022 crypto winter without bankruptcy (unlike some peers)
• IPO timing in late 2021 coincided with crypto peak, raising questions about market timing
• No prior securities violations for founders

A3. Capital Allocation Skills (4/5)

Evidence:

• Successfully secured transformational $9.7B Microsoft contract (IREN Press Release, Nov 2025)
• Strategic pivot from Bitcoin mining to AI infrastructure demonstrates adaptability
• $2.3B convertible notes offering and $1.6B equity raise show capital market access
• 20% prepayment from Microsoft ($1.9B) improves capital efficiency

A4. Transparency & Communication (3/5)

Evidence:

• Proactive investor communications with regular updates
• However, financial restatement undermines credibility
• Auditor change from Raymond Chabot Grant Thornton to KPMG in November 2025 (Investing.com, Nov 2025)
• Going concern qualification removed after capital raise

A5. Owner-Orientation (4/5)

Evidence:

• Founders retain significant ownership: Daniel Roberts ~15M shares, William Roberts ~14M shares (~10% combined)
• However, both founders sold 1M shares each in September 2025 at $33/share ($66M total) near record highs (TheMinerMag, Sep 2025)
• Company does not pay dividends, reinvesting in growth

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Section B: Board of Directors

Score: 14/20 (70%) 🟡

B1. Business Savvy (4/5)

Evidence:

• David Bartholomew: 30+ years energy/utilities experience, multiple board roles
• Sunita Parasuraman: Meta/Facebook Treasury Head background, relevant fintech experience
• Michael Alfred: Digital assets industry experience, co-founded Digital Assets Data
• Board lacks deep AI/hyperscale data center expertise

B2. Personal Financial Stake (3/5)

Evidence:

• Co-founders hold ~10% combined ownership
• Independent director ownership not prominently disclosed
• Board compensation includes equity incentives

B3. Independence (4/5)

Evidence:

• Independent directors include Parasuraman, Alfred, Guzowski, Bartholomew
• Co-CEO structure with both Roberts brothers creates concentrated management control
• Compensation Committee chaired by independent director Bartholomew

B4. Shareholder Representation (3/5)

Evidence:

• Standard governance practices
• No dual-class share structure
• Say-on-pay votes conducted annually

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Section C: Incentive Structures

Score: 12/20 (60%) 🟡

“Show me the incentive and I’ll show you the outcome.” – Charlie Munger

C1. Compensation Tied to Long-term Performance (3/5)

Evidence:

• 93% of Co-CEO target annual pay is at-risk variable compensation
• Mix of short-term and long-term metrics
• FW Cook serves as independent compensation consultant

C2. Management Owns Significant Stock (3/5)

Evidence:

• Daniel Roberts: ~15M shares via Awassi Capital Trust #2
• William Roberts: ~14M shares via Awassi Capital Trust #1
• Holdings are through family trusts rather than direct ownership

C3. Incentives Aligned with Shareholders (3/5)

Evidence:

• RSU grants vest over time
• Performance metrics include operational milestones
• Some concern: RSU grants of 1.79M shares to Daniel Roberts in July 2025

C4. No Perverse Short-term Incentives (3/5)

Evidence:

• CEO pay ratio of 993:1 is extremely high (QuiverQuant, Oct 2025)
• Daniel Roberts 2025 estimated compensation: $72.6M (up 90.82% from 2024)
• Compensation increase coincides with share price appreciation
• Significant insider sales near all-time highs raise alignment questions

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Section D: Regulatory & Political Environment

Score: 17/25 (68%) 🟡

D1. Political/Regulatory Moat Quality (3/5)

Evidence:

• Data center permits and grid connections provide some barriers
• No exclusive regulatory moats like utilities
• Cryptocurrency regulation remains evolving

D2. Government Relationship Sustainability (4/5)

Evidence:

• Texas favorable regulatory environment for crypto/data centers
• Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve legislation (SB21) validates state support
• 10-year tax abatements available in Texas
• No direct government contracts (Microsoft is private sector)

D3. No Corruption/Bribery Scandals (4/5)

Evidence:

• No FCPA violations or bribery allegations
• Securities class action relates to disclosure issues, not corruption
• Clean record in regulatory filings

D4. Antitrust Exposure Assessment (5/5)

Evidence:

• Fragmented market with many competitors
• No monopoly position in either Bitcoin mining or AI cloud
• No antitrust investigations or concerns

D5. Regulatory Tailwinds vs Headwinds (4/5)

Evidence:

• SEC clarified in March 2025 that proof-of-work mining not subject to securities laws
• Texas requires registration for crypto miners >75MW (compliance burden)
• AI infrastructure demand supported by policy initiatives
• No adverse regulatory changes on horizon

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Section E: Business Quality & Moat

Score: 22/35 (63%) 🟡

“The best moats are those that would take decades and billions of dollars to replicate.” – Charlie Munger

E1. Sustainable Competitive Advantage (4/5)

Evidence:

• Vertical integration: owns power, land, and data centers
• 3GW of secured grid-connected power across 2,000+ acres
• Cost advantage: $4M/MW vs $10M industry standard
• 100% renewable energy differentiation

E2. Pricing Power (3/5)

Evidence:

• GPU rental prices are market-driven
• Microsoft contract provides price visibility for 5 years
• Bitcoin mining has no pricing power (commodity)
• AI Cloud pricing competitive but not premium

E3. High Barriers to Entry (4/5)

Evidence:

• Significant capital requirements ($5.8B GPU procurement)
• 6-8 week conversion capability between Bitcoin and AI workloads
• Grid connection and power infrastructure takes years to develop
• However, well-funded competitors can replicate

E4. Low Threat of Disruption (2/5)

Evidence:

• Technology risk: GPU/ASIC evolution rapid
• Bitcoin halving reduces mining rewards every 4 years
• Hyperscalers could build own infrastructure
• Management acknowledged temporary nature of competitive advantage

E5. Industry Structure (Favorable) (3/5)

Evidence:

• Fragmented market with multiple competitors
• 36GW U.S. data center capacity shortage provides near-term protection
• Hyperscaler partnerships (Microsoft) create stability
• Intense competition for AI cloud contracts

E6. Intellectual Property & Brand Value (2/5)

Evidence:

• No significant proprietary technology or patents
• Brand recognition limited to crypto/AI infrastructure space
• No consumer brand value
• Renewable energy positioning is replicable

E7. Earnings Predictability & Recurring Revenue (4/5)

Evidence:

• Microsoft contract: $9.7B over 5 years provides visibility
• AI Cloud contracts average 2-year terms
• Bitcoin mining revenue highly volatile (tied to BTC price)
• Targeting $3.4B ARR by end 2026

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Section F: Financial Strength & Capital Efficiency

Score: 18/35 (51%) 🔴

“The margin of safety is always dependent on the price paid.” – Benjamin Graham

F1. Conservative Debt Levels (4/5)

Evidence:

• Debt-to-Equity ratio: 0.34 (conservative vs peers)
• Total debt: $965M; Total equity: $2.9B
• Debt/EBITDA manageable at current levels
• Better than Marathon (0.70) and Cipher (1.33)

F2. Strong Credit Rating (2/5)

Evidence:

• No credit rating for IREN Limited (NASDAQ)
• Company relies on convertible notes and equity
• Note: Italian Iren S.p.A. (different company) has BBB+ rating

F3. Adequate Cash Reserves (4/5)

Evidence:

• Cash on hand: $1.8B as of October 2025
• Current ratio: 5.52 (strong liquidity)
• Quick ratio: 5.24
• $1B ATM facility provides additional flexibility

F4. No Aggressive Accounting (2/5)

Evidence:

• Financial restatement in March 2025 (reclassification of Bitcoin sales from operating to investing activities)
• Material weakness in internal controls disclosed
• Auditor change from RCGT to KPMG in November 2025
• Going concern qualification in prior year (now removed)

F5. Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) (1/5)

Evidence:

• ROIC: -5.89% (negative) as of September 2025
• WACC: ~40% (high cost of capital)
• Company destroying value by traditional ROIC measures
• Heavy investment phase depresses returns

F6. Free Cash Flow Generation (1/5)

Evidence:

• FY2025 FCF: -$316M
• TTM FCF: -$877M (heavy capex)
• Operating cash flow positive ($392M)
• Capital expenditures: -$1.27B

F7. Capital Allocation Track Record (4/5)

Evidence:

• Microsoft deal validates strategic pivot
• $5.8B Dell GPU procurement secured
• Convertible notes with capped calls reduce dilution
• $1.9B Microsoft prepayment improves capital efficiency

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Section G: Country & Geopolitical Risk

Score: 12/15 (80%) 🟢

G1. Operates in Rule-of-Law Jurisdictions (5/5)

Evidence:

• Operations in United States (Texas) and Canada (British Columbia)
• Headquarters in Australia
• Strong property rights and legal frameworks
• No emerging market exposure

G2. Limited Geopolitical Exposure (3/5)

Evidence:

• NVIDIA GPU supply chain dependent on Taiwan/TSMC
• Taiwan Strait tensions pose risk to GPU supply
• China represents ~13% of NVIDIA revenue (indirect exposure)
• U.S.-China chip restrictions could impact GPU availability

G3. Supply Chain Diversification (4/5)

Evidence:

• Multiple power sources (Texas wind, BC hydro)
• Dell as primary GPU supplier (U.S. company)
• However, NVIDIA concentration creates dependency
• No single-source critical inputs for operations

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Section H: Valuation & Margin of Safety

Score: 16/35 (46%) 🔴

“Price is what you pay, value is what you get.” – Warren Buffett

H1. P/E vs Historical Average (2/5)

Evidence:

• Current P/E: ~24x (trailing)
• Historical P/E meaningless (company had losses until FY2025)
• Forward P/E: ~36x based on analyst estimates
• Limited history for meaningful comparison

H2. P/FCF (Price to Free Cash Flow) (1/5)

Evidence:

• FCF is negative (-$877M TTM)
• P/FCF ratio not calculable
• Heavy investment phase
• Not expected to generate positive FCF until 2027+

H3. EV/EBITDA vs Sector (4/5)

Evidence:

• Current EV/EBITDA: ~12-14x forward
• Sector average: ~14.4x
• Trading at discount to sector median
• Microsoft contract not fully reflected in current EBITDA

H4. PEG Ratio (Growth-Adjusted) (2/5)

Evidence:

• PEG ratio difficult to calculate (volatile earnings)
• Analyst EPS estimates vary widely
• Growth dependent on execution
• Not meaningful for growth/turnaround companies

H5. P/B Ratio (Graham's Value Test) (1/5)

Evidence:

• Current P/B: ~5-8x (varies by source)
• Graham threshold: 1.5x
• Trading at significant premium to book value
• Book value per share: ~$7

H6. Graham Number vs Current Price (1/5)

Evidence:

• Graham Number = √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
• With EPS ~$1.74 and BVPS ~$7: Graham Number ≈ $17
• Current price: ~$48
• Trading at ~280% of Graham Number

H7. Margin of Safety Assessment (2/5)

Evidence:

• Analyst price targets range: $24-$142 (wide range)
• Average target: ~$69 (45% upside)
• Goldman Sachs initiated Neutral at $39 (17% downside)
• Significant execution risk not fully discounted
• Intrinsic value models show 13-45% undervaluation depending on assumptions

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Section J: Benjamin Graham Defensive Investor Screen

Graham's 7-Point Criteria

#	Criterion	Threshold	Current Value	Pass/Fail
1	Adequate Size	Market Cap > $2B	$15.84B	✅
2	Strong Financial Condition	Current Ratio ≥ 2.0	5.52	✅
3	Earnings Stability	Positive EPS for 10 years	1/4 years	❌
4	Dividend Record	20+ year uninterrupted	0 years	❌
5	Earnings Growth	33%+ over 10 years	N/A (4 yr history)	❌
6	Moderate P/E Ratio	P/E ≤ 15	~24x	❌
7	Moderate P/B Ratio	P/B ≤ 1.5 or P/E×P/B ≤ 22.5	~5-8x	❌
TOTAL		7 to pass	2/7	❌ FAIL

Graham Analysis

Graham Screen Summary

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Red Flag Analysis

Governance Red Flags (Max: -35 pts)

Red Flag	Present?	Deduction	Evidence
Unrealistic promises to investors	N	0	Guidance appears achievable with Microsoft contract
Excessive CEO compensation (>100x median employee)	Y	-5	CEO pay ratio 993:1
Related-party transactions	N	0	None disclosed
Accounting restatements (last 5 years)	Y	-5	March 2025 restatement
High CFO/auditor turnover	Y	-5	Auditor changed Nov 2025; material weakness
Reluctance on tough questions	N	0	Management accessible
Corruption/bribery allegations (FCPA)	N	0	None
Governance Subtotal		-15

Financial Red Flags (Max: -21 pts)

Red Flag	Present?	Deduction	Evidence
High leverage (Debt/EBITDA > 4x)	N	0	Debt/EBITDA ~3.5x
ROIC below cost of capital (5yr avg)	Y	-5	ROIC -5.89% vs WACC ~40%
Declining FCF (3 consecutive years)	N	0	FCF improving (less negative)
Net share issuance >2% annually	Y	-3	Shares +104% in one year
Gross margin declining >500bps (5yr)	N	0	Margins expanding
Financial Subtotal		-8

Business Risk Red Flags (Max: -14 pts)

Red Flag	Present?	Deduction	Evidence
Customer/supplier concentration >25%	Y	-3	Microsoft contract dominant
Single-country exposure >50% revenue	N	0	US ~70% but US is low-risk
Revenue decline in 3+ of last 10 years	N	0	Revenue growing rapidly
Unstable government subsidy dependence	N	0	No subsidy dependence
Business Risk Subtotal		-3

Valuation Red Flags (Max: -13 pts)

Red Flag	Present?	Deduction	Evidence
Stock at >2x 5-year average P/E	N	0	No meaningful 5yr avg
P/FCF > 40 (or negative FCF)	Y	-3	Negative FCF
Trading >30% above fair value estimate	N	0	Within analyst range
Valuation Subtotal		-3

Red Flag Summary

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Critic Review Notes

Score Adjustments

Category	Initial	Final	Reason
A. CEO	18	17	Reduced for securities lawsuit and restatement
F. Financial	20	18	Reduced for auditor change and material weakness

Gaps & Limitations

• Limited financial history (company founded 2018, IPO 2021)
• Earnings stability difficult to assess (volatile/negative until FY2025)
• Credit rating not available for IREN Ltd (NASDAQ)
• Future revenue projections highly dependent on execution

Bull vs Bear Case

Bull Case:

• Microsoft $9.7B contract validates AI pivot
• 100% renewable energy differentiation
• Massive power infrastructure (3GW secured)
• First-mover advantage in Bitcoin-to-AI conversion
• Strong liquidity ($1.8B cash)

Bear Case:

• Negative ROIC and FCF
• Securities lawsuit pending
• Financial restatement and auditor change
• 104% share dilution in one year
• Execution risk on $5.8B GPU deployment
• Single customer concentration (Microsoft)
• Bitcoin price volatility risk

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Source Reliability Summary

Reliability	Count	%
HIGH (SEC filings, official company releases)	25	60%
MEDIUM (Major financial news, analyst reports)	15	36%
LOW (Removed)	2	4%
Total Sources Used	42	100%

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Hyperlink Validation

Metric	Count
Total hyperlinks	45
Links tested	45
Links verified working	43
Links replaced (broken)	2
Links removed (no alternative)	0

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All Citations

1. IREN Company Overview – Stock Analysis
2. IREN Yahoo Finance Profile
3. IREN Leadership Team
4. IREN Board of Directors
5. Daniel Roberts Crunchbase Profile
6. IREN Microsoft Contract Announcement
7. IREN FY25 Results
8. IREN Q1 FY26 Results
9. Securities Class Action Lawsuit – GlobeNewswire
10. IREN Financial Restatement
11. IREN Auditor Change – Investing.com
12. IREN CEO Compensation – QuiverQuant
13. IREN Insider Sales – TheMinerMag
14. IREN Debt/Equity – GuruFocus
15. IREN Free Cash Flow – MacroTrends
16. IREN ROIC – GuruFocus
17. IREN P/E Ratio – MacroTrends
18. IREN Price to Book – MacroTrends
19. IREN Book Value Per Share – GuruFocus
20. IREN EPS – MacroTrends
21. IREN Current Ratio – MacroTrends
22. Bitcoin Mining 2025 Overview – CoinDesk
23. IREN AI Infrastructure Analysis – BeyondSPX
24. Texas Crypto Mining Regulations – Texas Tribune
25. IREN Convertible Notes – GlobeNewswire
26. IREN Intrinsic Value – Alpha Spread
27. Marathon Digital – Yahoo Finance
28. Riot Platforms – Yahoo Finance
29. Core Scientific – Yahoo Finance
30. CleanSpark – Yahoo Finance
31. Cipher Mining – Yahoo Finance
32. IREN Glassdoor Reviews
33. IREN Investor Presentations
34. IREN Revenue – MacroTrends
35. IREN Market Cap – Stock Analysis
36. Baillie Gifford IREN Analysis
37. IREN Key Statistics – Yahoo Finance
38. IREN Ownership – WallStreetZen
39. Bloomberg Roberts Brothers Profile
40. IREN Stock-Based Compensation – MacroTrends
41. TIKR IREN Analysis
42. Seeking Alpha IREN Analysis

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“The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.” – Benjamin Graham