JZ Talks

My Life Outside Work

Tag: Value Investing

  • Netflix (NFLX) Stock Analysis: Munger Quality Rubric Evaluation 2026

    Netflix (NFLX) Stock Analysis: Munger Quality Rubric Evaluation 2026

    View All Stock Evaluations | Evaluation Date: 2026-01-12

    Key Takeaways: Is NFLX a Quality Investment?

    This section provides a scannable summary for quick reference.

    • Verdict: PASS — Score: 156/210 (74.3%)
    • Moat Strength: Strong — Global streaming leader with 300M+ subscribers, unmatched content library, and network effects from data-driven personalization
    • Financial Health: Excellent — ROIC 24%+, FCF $9B, Debt/EBITDA ~1.0x, A/A3 credit rating
    • Valuation: Fair to Slightly Overvalued — P/E 37x vs 5yr avg 47x, but pending $72B Warner Bros. acquisition adds uncertainty
    • Key Risk: The proposed Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition could face antitrust challenges and significantly increase leverage

    (more…)

  • Qualcomm (QCOM) Stock Analysis: Munger Quality Rubric Evaluation 2026

    Qualcomm (QCOM) Stock Analysis: Munger Quality Rubric Evaluation 2026

    View All Stock Evaluations | Evaluation Date: 2026-01-12

    Key Takeaways: Is QCOM a Quality Investment?

    This section provides a scannable summary for quick reference.

    • Verdict: 🟢 PASS — Score: 152/210 (72.4%)
    • Moat Strength: Strong — World-leading 5G patent portfolio with high-margin licensing revenue; testing requirements create massive barriers to entry
    • Financial Health: Excellent — Debt/EBITDA 0.86x, ROIC 26%, $12.8B FCF, $13.3B cash reserves
    • Valuation: Fair to Slightly Overvalued — P/E 34x vs 5yr avg 18x; Forward P/E 14x more reasonable
    • Key Risk: 46-64% revenue exposure to China and impending loss of Apple modem business by 2027

    This evaluation uses the Charlie Munger Quality Rubric framework analyzing management, moat, financials, and valuation across 8 dimensions.

    (more…)

  • Tesla (TSLA) Munger Quality Rubric: FAIL at 48% – Extreme Valuation

    Tesla (TSLA) Munger Quality Rubric: FAIL at 48% – Extreme Valuation

    View All Stock Evaluations | Evaluation Date: 2026-01-12

    Key Takeaways: Is TSLA a Quality Investment?

    This section provides a scannable summary for quick reference.

    • Verdict: ❌ FAIL — Score: 101/210 (48.1%)
    • Moat Strength: Weakening — Brand eroding as BYD overtakes in global EV sales; market share declining
    • Financial Health: Good — Zero net debt, $36B cash, but declining margins and ROIC
    • Valuation: Significantly Overvalued — P/E 297x, EV/EBITDA 86x, 12x Graham Number
    • Key Risk: CEO distraction and reputational damage affecting brand, combined with extreme valuation

    This evaluation uses the Charlie Munger Quality Rubric framework analyzing management, moat, financials, and valuation across 8 dimensions.

    (more…)

  • Robinhood (HOOD) Munger Quality Rubric: 48% Score Reveals Major Risks

    Robinhood (HOOD) Munger Quality Rubric: 48% Score Reveals Major Risks

    View All Stock Evaluations | Evaluation Date: 2026-01-06

    Robinhood makes money through three primary streams: transaction-based revenues from payment for order flow (PFOF) when routing stock, options, and cryptocurrency trades to market makers (58% of revenue); net interest income earned on customer cash balances, margin lending, and securities lending (35% of revenue); and subscription fees from Robinhood Gold memberships plus other services (7% of revenue). The company has successfully diversified from near-total PFOF dependence to a more balanced revenue mix.

    (more…)

  • IREN Stock Analysis: Bitcoin Miner’s AI Pivot Falls Short

    IREN Stock Analysis: Bitcoin Miner’s AI Pivot Falls Short

    View All Stock Evaluations | Evaluation Date: 2026-01-05

    IREN Limited is a vertically integrated data center company that generates revenue through two main channels: Bitcoin mining using proprietary data centers powered by 100% renewable energy, and AI cloud services providing high-performance computing (HPC) and GPU-as-a-Service for machine learning workloads. The company secured a transformational $9.7 billion contract with Microsoft in November 2025 to provide AI cloud infrastructure, marking its strategic pivot from crypto mining to hyperscale AI compute.

    (more…)

  • Costco (COST) – Munger Quality Rubric Evaluation

    Costco (COST) – Munger Quality Rubric Evaluation

    Evaluation Date: 2025-12-29 | <- Back to All Stock Evaluations

    Costco Wholesale Corporation exemplifies Charlie Munger’s investment philosophy better than almost any other company. With a 92% membership renewal rate, the Kirkland Signature private label generating $30+ billion annually, and a culture of promoting from within, Costco scores an exceptional 86% on the Munger Quality Rubric. This evaluation examines why Munger himself served on Costco’s board and held its stock until his passing.

    (more…)

  • Apple Inc. (AAPL) – Munger Quality Rubric Evaluation

    Apple Inc. (AAPL) – Munger Quality Rubric Evaluation

    View All Stock Evaluations | Evaluation Date: 2025-12-29

    Apple Inc. is the world’s most valuable company with a $3.8 trillion market cap, exceptional ecosystem moat (92% customer retention), and disciplined capital allocation ($700B+ in buybacks). This Munger-style evaluation analyzes Apple across leadership, governance, business quality, and geopolitical risk.

    (more…)

  • Stock Analysis Summary – Munger Quality Rubric Evaluations

    All Stock Evaluations

    This page provides a summary of all stocks analyzed using the Munger Quality Rubric – a comprehensive evaluation framework inspired by Charlie Munger’s investment principles. Each stock is scored across multiple categories including leadership quality, competitive moat, financial strength, and valuation.

    Score Interpretation:

    • 80%+ (Green): Excellent investment candidate
    • 60-79% (Yellow): Good with some concerns
    • 40-59% (Orange): Fair with significant issues
    • Below 40% (Red): Poor investment quality

    (more…)